James Murray MP: speeches 2025

Speeches

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  The Chancellor obviously spoke to Cabinet on the day of the Budget, as is the normal process, to let them know what was coming in the Budget later that day.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I would like to make a statement to the House on two separate but related matters. The first is regarding communication with the public in the lead-up to the Budget. I understand that this is a topic that has held much interest and speculation over the weekend and I would like to take this opportunity to give a formal statement to the House on the Government’s position. Secondly, the Government have also today received the results of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s investigation into the early release of the “Economic and fiscal outlook” at the Budget last week. I know that the House will be concerned to know the findings of that report, and I will turn to that in a moment. On the first point, the Chancellor has been consistent and up front with the public about her considerations in the lead-up to the Budget last week. First, she was clear on her priorities at the Budget, which were to cut NHS waiting lists, to cut the cost of living and to cut our debt and borrowing. The Budget delivered on those priorities. Secondly, she was clear on 4 November that a lower productivity forecast would mean lower tax receipts. The OBR confirmed at the Budget that tax receipts are £16 billion lower as a result of the reduced productivity forecast. Thirdly, the Chancellor was clear on 4 November that she intended to build more headroom. She has done that, with headroom against the stability rule of £21.7 billion. Fourthly, she was clear in the summer that the policy decisions we took on welfare would need to be paid for at the Budget, and the Budget document shows those decisions costing £6.9 billion in 2029-30. Finally, the OBR has now confirmed that the Chancellor knew on 4 November that she had only £4.2 billion of headroom against her fiscal rules, meaning that once the cost of those policy decisions was accounted for, there would be a deficit of £2.7 billion against the stability rule. The combined effect of this information is that on 4 November, the Chancellor knew that the Government would be in deficit against the stability rule before any of this Government’s priorities for the Budget had been delivered, or any additional headroom built. In the light of that information, and knowing about the OBR’s productivity downgrade, the Chancellor knew on 4 November that challenging decisions would be required on tax and spend. The subsequent decision to freeze personal tax thresholds for a further three years shows that this was correct. The Chancellor took the step of delivering a speech before the Budget, precisely so that she could be up front about the circumstances that she was facing and the decisions that she would need to take. She has been honest and consistent with the public in everything she has said. Last Wednesday, before the Chancellor began her Budget speech, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its entire “Economic and fiscal outlook” online. Let me be clear: this is a very serious breach of highly sensitive information. It is a fundamental breach of the OBR’s responsibility; it is a discourtesy to this House, and it should never have happened. The OBR rightly took full responsibility and issued an apology to the Chancellor later that day. It has conducted an investigation into how the report came to be published prematurely, and it sent its report, including its findings, to the Treasury and the Treasury Committee today at 12.30 pm. The report states: “We are in no doubt that this failure to protect information prior to publication has inflicted heavy damage on the OBR’s reputation. It is the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR.” It adds that the “responsibility for the circumstances in which this vulnerability occurred and was then exposed rests, over the years, with the leadership of the OBR.” The report notes that this has “inflicted heavy damage on the OBR’s reputation”, and caused significant disruption on Budget day, “to the Chancellor’s disadvantage”. The report goes on to make it clear that a significant and long-standing issue has allowed external users to gain early access to the OBR’s publication, which contains full details of its forecasts and the Chancellor’s Budget. In the days since the Budget, there has been speculation about the kind of error that led to the “Economic and fiscal outlook” being published early. The report today confirms that the cause was not “simply a matter of pressing the publication button on a locally managed website too early.” The report concludes that the cause of the OBR’s error was “systemic issues”, and that the investigation has made it clear that “the problem exposed last week was not a new one.” Indeed, the report reveals that the OBR’s EFO in March was accessed before the Chancellor delivered the spring statement to the House. That underlines just how serious the situation is. Let me underline that as a Government, we take seriously the need to ensure that the OBR never allows this to happen again. The report notes that common and fairly basic protections to prevent early access, including passwords and random-character URLs, were not used. It further notes that two configuration errors, which were not understood by the OBR’s online publishing function, prevented the safeguards in its online publishing software from being effective. I am also very concerned that the report notes that “it is very likely that the weaknesses that caused the premature accessing of the November 2025 EFO were pre-existing. Indeed, it appears that the March 2025 EFO was accessed prematurely”. These findings are very serious indeed. The fact that market-sensitive information was prematurely accessible to a small group of market participants is extremely concerning, and the fact that this may have been the case on more than one occasion makes the situation even more severe. We do not know at this stage the extent to which market behaviour may have been affected on this or other occasions as a result of information being available early. I want to share one further bit of information from the report with the House. On the morning of the Budget, the first IP address to successfully access the EFO had made 32 prior attempts that day, starting at around 5 am. That volume of requests implies that the person attempting to access the document had every confidence that persistence would lead to success at some point. Unfortunately, that leads us to consider whether the reason they tried so persistently to access the EFO is because they had been successful at a previous fiscal event. At this time, we do not have answers to all those questions, but the Treasury will make contact with previous Chancellors, to make them aware of developments relating to previous fiscal events. The OBR has rightly conducted its initial investigation as quickly as possible, and it is right that both the Government and the Treasury Committee now take time to consider the report and its findings. The Treasury Committee will have the opportunity to carefully question the OBR tomorrow, at its post-Budget hearing. Furthermore, in response to paragraph 3.4 of the report, which set out that the problem exposed last week is not new, I can confirm to the House that the Government will work in conjunction with the National Cyber Security Centre to take forward the recommendation that a forensic examination of other fiscal events be carried out—although I note that the report finds no evidence of hostile cyber-activity. In addition, the report says that the OBR “could not, in the time available, carry out a deeper forensic examination of other recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook events and we recommend that such an exercise is, with expert support, now urgently carried out”. We will make sure that work is carried out urgently. We will look at wider questions of the systemic risk that this incident has uncovered, including the report’s conclusion that the OBR’s information security arrangements “should have been regularly re-examined and assured by the management of the OBR.” This Government are committed to the independence of the OBR and its role at the heart of economic and fiscal policy making. The Chancellor and the whole of the Treasury value the independence of the OBR and our constructive relationship with it over the past 16 months, in challenging economic times. The strength of that institution is a vital pillar in the Government’s economic and fiscal policy making, and we will respond to this matter with the seriousness it demands.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  My hon. Friend is right to point out that the OBR plays a critical role in the Budget process and an important role in the robust and transparent fiscal framework that underpins our approach in government. Indeed, the first Bill passed by this Government included the fiscal lock, which prevents the sidelining of the OBR that the previous Government did, causing chaos for people across this country.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  My hon. Friend is absolutely right: imagine if I were trying to defend a Budget to the House that was delivered with just a few billion pounds of headroom—what message would that send about the UK economy? The headroom is there to reduce the cost of Government borrowing and to give us protection against future shocks that might come our way.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  The right hon. Gentleman is a former Treasury Minister, so he will know the importance of the OBR’s productivity downgrade and the impact that that has had on the forecasts. He will know that £16 billion is a significant downgrade to have had as a result of that productivity review, and he will know that were I here defending a Budget with just a few billion pounds of headroom, that would not be a position that any of us would want to be in.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  That is a matter for the leadership of the OBR. Let me emphasise how important the OBR is as an institution for this Government in providing a robust and transparent fiscal framework that underpins the stability we have returned to the economy.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention. He is right to draw attention to the fact that the Conservatives want to completely distance themselves from their record in government. We have seen their record in government laid bare in the OBR’s productivity downgrade. That investigation by the OBR resulted in a hit to the public finances to the tune of £16 billion. That was a real consequence for our economy, and we had to take real decisions to correct it.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I can reassure the hon. Lady that since we won the election I have spent many hours with the oil and gas industry in Aberdeen. It is exactly why we confirmed in the Budget last week that we will end the energy profits levy in 2030, or sooner if a price floor is triggered.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  As a Treasury Minister, I have obviously been involved in discussions with the Chancellor and the Prime Minister’s team throughout the Budget process. We developed these policies collectively to cut the cost of living, cut NHS waiting lists and cut Government borrowing.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  What is clear is that we delivered a Budget to cut the cost of living, cut NHS waiting lists and cut Government borrowing.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  One of the reasons we take this matter so seriously is precisely the value that we place on the OBR. We see it as having a vital role in a robust and transparent fiscal framework, which is why we take last week’s breach of information so very seriously.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  As the Budget documents and as the EFO makes clear, the downgrade in productivity was real. That was a £16 billion hit to economic forecasts, and it was a challenge that we inherited as a result of what the right hon. Member’s Government did when they were in power. We took the right and necessary decisions to fix the public finances, making sure that we could do so without going down the route of uncontrolled borrowing—like his Government did—or the route of slashing public investment.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  My hon. Friend asks what the OBR report was able to conclude. It said that “We could not, in the time available, carry out deeper forensic examination of other recent EFO events and we recommend that such an exercise is, with expert support, now urgently carried out.” That is exactly what the Government will be doing.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  Borrowing falls in every year of this forecast.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  It is clear that this is a very serious matter, and it is right that the Government respond to it with the seriousness it demands. As my hon. Friend made clear, this is not—to quote the OBR again— “simply a matter of pressing” the wrong button “on a locally managed website too early.” This is a systemic issue and a far more serious one, and it deserves our serious attention.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I do not quite understand the hon. Lady’s question. When we got into office in July last year, our task was to fix the mess of the public finances that the Conservatives had left. At this Budget, the OBR’s productivity downgrade revealed further damage—deep scars—that her Government’s actions caused to our economy as a result of slashing public investment and mishandling Brexit, so if anyone wants to come to this Chamber and apologise, might it be her?

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I thank my hon. Friend for his question, and he is right to draw attention to the seriousness of what happened last week. The initial report by the OBR sets out just how many times the report was accessed and shared before the Chancellor had given her Budget speech. There were 32 attempts to access it, starting at about 5 am that day, and it was then shared multiple times before the Chancellor had delivered her Budget speech. We do not have all of the answers to his questions, and the OBR has acknowledged that in the limited time available it has not done forensic analysis of what happened at all previous fiscal events. We know that the EFO for the March 2025 spring statement was certainly accessed. What we will do as a Government is work to make sure we have full information, and urgently find out what was shared—or rather what was inadvertently shared—at previous fiscal events.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  No. The Chancellor—

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  My hon. Friend is right to draw attention to the fact that, had I been here today defending a headroom of £4 billion or less, it would have been a completely impossible task. This Government are determined to ensure that we increase headroom to give us greater stability. By increasing it to £21.7 billion, we have done just that.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  As my hon. Friend knows, the OBR has already published its forecasts at various rounds during the Budget process. The process is iterative between the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility. I am sure my hon. Friend welcomes the fact that in the Budget, we cut the cost of living, cut NHS waiting lists and cut Government borrowing.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  The real focus of the Chancellor has been on cutting the cost of living, cutting NHS waiting lists and cutting Government borrowing. I hope that the right hon. Gentleman, like all Members of this House, values the importance of the Office for Budget Responsibility and takes this matter with the same seriousness that we in government do.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I do not know whether the right hon. Lady missed my explanation of where the Chancellor was, but I am pleased to announce to the House that the Chancellor is in Wales today, at the Wales investment summit. She is there following yesterday’s announcement of £1.4 billion of extra investment into Wales, and that is just the latest tranche of the £16 billion of new investment announced since the summit was launched.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  Events are moving quickly, and I understand that the chair of the OBR has resigned. That is what I understand from messages passed to me.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I emphasise to my hon. Friend and all Members of this House that the Chancellor and all of us in the Treasury value the independence of the OBR and the constructive relationship we have had with it over the past 16 months, in challenging times. Obviously, the matter that we are discussing today—the early publication of the report last Wednesday—is incredibly serious. The reason we as a Government are taking it so seriously is that we want to preserve the integrity and independence of the OBR in the future.

• 1 Dec 2025 · Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts · Hansard source

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  I am sorry that the right hon. Lady does not welcome the fact that the Chancellor is in Wales today to promote investment in Wales, but I can point her to the fact that the decision to lift the two-child benefit cap will benefit children in Wales, that the money off energy bills will benefit people in Wales, and that the changes to the fiscal framework will benefit people in Wales. The decisions that this Government took will cut the cost of living and make sure that we cut Government borrowing, which will benefit people right across the UK.